TRANSPACIFIC CAPACITY REMAINS LONG AS CARRIERS EXTEND YEAR END BLANK SAILINGS
Transpacific container markets remain oversupplied as December demand continues to fade. Carriers are relying heavily on blank sailings to manage utilization, particularly into the USWC where vessel rotations remain highly fluid and short term. USEC services are showing more stability, with fewer late December capacity withdrawals and more consistent space availability. Attention is shifting to early January, where carriers are positioning capacity in anticipation of a potential pre Lunar New Year volume rebound. Deployment remains flexible, and any gap between forecasts and actual bookings is likely to trigger rapid schedule changes.
CHINA AIR CARGO MOVES PAST PEAK AS HOLIDAY SLOWDOWN BEGINS
China air cargo volumes are easing after the final pre holiday surge. East China gateways remain active, supported by electronics and cross border e commerce, but momentum is beginning to soften as year end schedules take hold. Early week utilization remains supported by residual backlog, with more visible volume easing expected as the week progresses. The market is transitioning toward seasonal normalization rather than a sharp correction.
HONG KONG AND SOUTHEAST ASIA SEE VOLUME PULLBACK
Hong Kong air cargo volumes declined during Week 51 as e commerce programs scaled back ahead of the extended Christmas weekend. Southeast Asia markets including Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia are showing similar patterns, with outbound volumes easing as production pauses and holiday closures interrupt shipping cycles. Deferred services continue to move baseline volumes, while aerospace and charter demand across Asia remains active.
TRADE AND COMPLIANCE DEVELOPMENTS TO NOTE
Several regulatory actions finalized this month will shape importer planning into 2026. The U.S. Trade Representative issued a Section 301 determination on Nicaragua, establishing phased tariffs on non CAFTA DR originating goods beginning January 1, 2026. APHIS confirmed that full enforcement of the ISPM 15 hyphen requirement for wood packaging material resumes January 1, 2026, with no grace period. The Court of International Trade ruled that liquidation of IEEPA tariff entries may continue during ongoing litigation without affecting refund eligibility. The Department of Commerce also opened the January 2026 Section 232 automobile parts inclusion window, reinforcing the established quarterly filing schedule.
WHAT TO WATCH LEADING INTO 2026
Year end capacity discipline remains the dominant theme across ocean and air. Early January booking behavior will determine whether carriers maintain current deployment strategies or accelerate further capacity adjustments ahead of the Lunar New Year period.
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