FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE | WEEK 47 | 2025

Week 47 brings active shifts in U.S. trade policy, a softening in Transpacific volume, and continued pressure across key Asia air cargo markets. At the same time, Asia origin capacity remains generally stable, while strong e-commerce activity and fourth-quarter demand continue to influence regional air cargo conditions.

The U.S. expanded its reciprocal trade engagement with Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador, and El Salvador while also advancing a new trilateral framework with Switzerland and Liechtenstein. These actions reflect broader policy alignment on tariff structures, documentation standards, conformity assessments, and regulatory transparency. Agricultural import policy also shifted with the addition of updated exclusions under Executive Order 14346. Importers should monitor potential modifications to tariff schedules, evolving digital-trade rules, and future implementation milestones as negotiations progress through early 2026.

Transpacific volume continued to decline as holiday merchandise had already moved into U.S. distribution centers. Carriers are adjusting services accordingly, and early-December sailings are expected to see reduced bookings due to arrival dates overlapping with holiday periods. Market indicators suggest continued softness through the remainder of the month, as importers moderate orders ahead of the new year. Capacity remains available across major routes, although isolated pockets of tightening may occur on specific services.

Most major Asia origins are trending normal for capacity into the United States. Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Qingdao, Tianjin, and Saigon are operating without significant constraints. Ningbo shows early tightening to the U.S. East Coast as some carriers adjust allocations. Haiphong and related North-Vietnam origins remain stable with sufficient lift for scheduled departures. Near-term availability remains adequate across both coasts with no systemic congestion indicators.

China’s air cargo demand is led by e-commerce platforms and high-tech shipments, which continue to secure significant lift through charter and scheduled capacity. Direct flights into major U.S. gateways remain tight, and published rates are entering an upward trend as carriers withdraw cumulative-pricing policies. Inspection pressures on select commodity groups, including e-cigarettes, have shifted cargo composition on U.S. East Coast routes but have not materially reduced total volume. Southeast Asia is experiencing sustained peak-season pressure driven by e-commerce and solar-sector demand, with space remaining critical and consistently oversubscribed.

Origins across Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia continue to move strong outbound volume as seasonal programs and manufacturing output support high activity levels. Space constraints are persistent across direct and deferred services into the U.S. West Coast, the U.S. East Coast, and major European destinations. Cargo flows remain elevated for e-commerce and industrial components with forward bookings extending deeper into the calendar. Market activity is expected to remain strong as shippers finalize fourth-quarter commitments.

Global air cargo trends show mixed performance, with overall demand growth trailing capacity expansion year over year. Transatlantic activity softened while Asia-Europe flows moderated from earlier seasonal highs. New freighter deployments in China are supporting European throughput and redirecting some e-commerce volume away from the United States. U.S. infrastructure constraints following recent flight reductions continue to affect national capacity availability, and industry groups are urging a rapid return to predictable operations to support stable freight movement.