WEAK TRANSPACIFIC DEMAND AND SOUTH CHINA CONGESTION AHEAD OF GOLDEN WEEK
Golden Week closures from October 1, 2025, through October 7, 2025, and residual typhoon recovery continue to pressure South China’s supply network while trans-Pacific volumes remain subdued. Space availability is ample across most lanes, with limited constraints on express services supporting e-commerce demand. Carriers are realigning schedules and withdrawing select services ahead of the October 14, 2025, U.S. port-fee implementation for Chinese operators, while importers prepare for new Section 232 wood-product tariffs expected to influence containerized volumes across furniture and cabinetry sectors.
HOW ARE TRANSPACIFIC CAPACITY AND VOLUMES TRENDING AHEAD OF GOLDEN WEEK?
Volume on the trans-Pacific trade remains below seasonal expectations, reflecting soft U.S. import demand and ongoing trade-policy uncertainty. Space remains readily available across all major lanes except for a few express services designed for high-velocity e-commerce cargo. With weak manufacturing output and pre-holiday slowdowns, carriers continue to compete for share through network stability and schedule reliability rather than volume restrictions. Analysts report that market conditions entering October remain characterized by open capacity and muted booking activity.
HOW ARE SOUTH CHINA PORTS RECOVERING FROM TYPHOON RAGASA?
Port congestion across Guangdong and Fujian provinces persists following Super Typhoon Ragasa. Although terminals in Shenzhen and Guangzhou resumed limited operations on September 25, extended closures have produced shortages of empty containers and trucking capacity. Delayed factory pickups, late returns, and vessel bunching continue to compound congestion across Yantian, Shekou, Nansha, Xiamen, and Fuzhou. These typhoon-related delays, merging with Golden Week shutdowns, are expected to prolong operational disruptions through early October before gradual normalization resumes post-holiday.
HOW ARE CARRIERS ADJUSTING NETWORKS AHEAD OF U.S. POLICY CHANGES?
Hede Shipping has withdrawn its HDS2 trans-Pacific service connecting Huanghua, Shanghai, and Los Angeles, with the final sailing departing September 18, 2025. The carrier is consolidating routes ahead of the USTR’s October 14, 2025 port-service-fee implementation for Chinese-built vessels calling U.S. ports. Hede will maintain connectivity via its HDS and HDS3 loops from Shanghai and Nansha to Los Angeles using smaller vessels on regular rotations. Industry observers note that this adjustment aligns with broader carrier strategies to optimize tonnage deployment and minimize U.S. port-fee exposure without reducing overall market coverage.
WHAT TRADE POLICY CHANGES ARE IMPACTING OCTOBER IMPORT VOLUMES?
The White House recently issued a proclamation under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 implementing new Section 232 tariffs on wood products effective October 14, 2025. The tariffs apply to softwood timber and lumber (10 percent), upholstered wooden furniture (25 percent rising to 30 percent on January 1, 2026), and completed kitchen cabinets and vanities (25 percent rising to 50 percent on January 1, 2026). As furniture and cabinetry represent roughly 10 percent of trans-Pacific container volumes, importers should anticipate shifts in bookings and inventory strategies through October as the new HTSUS 9903.76 headings take effect. CBP has confirmed that entries of affected products into foreign-trade zones on or after October 14, 2025, must be admitted in privileged foreign status, with drawback available for qualifying re-exports.
CHINA AIR MARKET OVERVIEW
Air-freight volumes peaked between September 29, 2025, and October 3, 2025, as typhoon backlogs coincided with pre-holiday stocking. Following factory shutdowns on October 4, 2025, and 5, 2025, throughput fell to roughly 30 percent of normal levels. Hi-tech cargo volumes declined 12 percent year over year, while e-commerce and general cargo fell by 20 to 30 percent. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd blanked select U.S. West Coast services, prompting a temporary modal shift to air for urgent shipments. Eastern China carriers also implemented multiple flight cancellations from PVG to ORD, LAX, and JFK, contributing to tight airport capacity. With the U.S. tariff-deferral period ending soon, activity remains cautious and fourth-quarter air market expectations subdued.
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