Week 31 finds U.S. importers navigate a sluggish start to peak season as Transpacific volumes remain flat and capacity reductions extend into August.
CHINA VOLUMES REMAIN SUBDUED AS TARIFF TALKS CONTINUE
China-origin demand continues its downward trend following the Q2 front-loading surge. The 90-day extension of U.S.-China tariff negotiations has not revived booking momentum. This is the third consecutive week of low activity from China despite policy extensions. The slow rebound suggests importers are waiting for clearer guidance before booking at volume, especially with August 14, 2025, tariff deadlines still in play for many product categories.
CAPACITY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES AS CARRIERS HOLD COURSE
Meanwhile, carriers remain in capacity control mode as blank sailings and service withdrawals continue to impact both U.S. West and East Coast loops. At least one major standalone service has been suspended entirely, while others have reduced rotations or shifted vessels to alternative trades. This pattern mirrors capacity management seen earlier in the year and suggests a lack of confidence in near-term demand. Unless volumes shift or supply chain disruptions emerge, carriers are expected to maintain limited capacity through mid-quarter.
TRANSATLANTIC TRADE AGREEMENT GAINS TRACTION AMID GLOBAL REPOSITIONING
The newly announced trade agreement between the United States and the European Union marks a long-term shift in market access and sourcing strategy. The framework introduces 15% reciprocal tariffs on selected EU-origin goods while expanding U.S. export opportunities through new quotas, regulatory alignment, and long-term energy contracts.
The agreement includes EU commitments to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and invest $600 billion in U.S.-based industries by 2028. Implementation guidance is still pending, but early impacts may begin surfacing in some U.S. manufacturing and export sectors this quarter.
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