Diesel prices are now influencing domestic freight behavior, with rising fuel costs contributing to tightening capacity across key lanes.
WHAT ARE PROJECTED DIESEL FUEL COSTS GOING INTO THE SECOND QUARTER?
Following military action in the Middle East on February 28, 2026, and the subsequent de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil and petroleum product prices increased significantly. The front-month futures price of Brent crude oil finished the first quarter at $118 per barrel, marking the largest quarterly increase on an inflation-adjusted basis since 1988.
On March 30, 2026, the U.S. average retail diesel price reached $5.40 per gallon, the highest level in real terms in over two years. By the week of April 6, 2026, that figure stood at $5.643 per gallon. A recent report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects diesel to peak at more than $5.80 per gallon in April before easing through the second half of the year, averaging $4.80 per gallon for all of 2026 and $4.11 per gallon in 2027.
HOW DOES DIESEL PRICING IMPACT DOMESTIC CAPACITY?
Some owner-operators have parked their trucks due to rising fuel costs. Others are cutting deadhead miles, turning down freight, and reducing highway speeds to conserve fuel. Trucks coming off the road are not being replaced at the same rate as in previous cycles, so available capacity is tightening. Shippers with established carrier relationships and consistent freight volumes are better positioned to maintain reliable service levels in this environment.
HOW DO SHIPPERS MITIGATE RISK?
Shippers are adjusting network strategies to maintain consistency as fuel costs influence carrier behavior. In periods of elevated fuel costs, freight forwarders can provide broader access to carrier options and routing alternatives that may not be available through a single-source approach.
Additional considerations include:
- Shipment Consolidation – Combining smaller shipments reduces handling frequency and improves load efficiency across available capacity.
- Mode & Route Evaluation – Intermodal options on longer lanes reduce exposure to highway-dependent capacity. Route planning that limits empty miles supports more consistent execution across modes.
- Contract Alignment on Core Lanes – For lanes with consistent volume, maintaining contract agreements with core carriers helps preserve service levels as capacity tightens and carriers become more selective.
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