Trade activity remains steady as carriers fine-tune deployments across Asia. Transpacific ocean volumes have eased into the seasonal slowdown, while air cargo from Southeast Asia continues to climb ahead of year-end. U.S. Customs compliance remains a critical focus for importers working to manage tariff exposure under the latest trade adjustments.
TRANSPACIFIC CAPACITY STABLE AS DEMAND SOFTENS
Space from Asia to North America is widely available as carriers move through the slack season. Fewer blank sailings are scheduled after Week 47, indicating that vessel schedules are normalizing. Volumes from the Far East to the United States declined 7.2 percent year over year in October after a 10 percent drop in September. Retail import forecasts point to continued moderation through early 2026 as inventories even out. China’s share of Transpacific exports has fallen 6.5 percent this year, while shipments from Southeast Asia are up more than 20 percent. The one-year suspension of reciprocal port fees between the United States and China, effective November 10, adds short-term stability as carriers rebalance service rotations.
SOUTHEAST ASIA EXPORTS GAIN SHARE ACROSS TRADE LANES
Service patterns are shifting toward Southeast Asia as trade frameworks with Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia expand. Carriers are adding new express services to support production growth, especially in Vietnam. Space from Saigon to the U.S. West Coast is tightening, while east-bound capacity remains normal. Haiphong, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao are stable to both coasts with only limited congestion around promotional peaks.
AIR CARGO VOLUMES CLIMB IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
Airfreight demand remains elevated across Hong Kong, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. E-commerce, solar-cell projects, and industrial shipments are driving consistent lift into North America and Europe. Most carriers are operating at high load factors, prioritizing e-commerce freight ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving period. Capacity for both direct and deferred flights to the U.S. West and East Coasts remains constrained. Several parcel carriers have announced plans to expand Asia-linked networks in 2026 to meet sustained cross-regional growth.
CLASSIFICATION REVIEWS STRENGTHEN TARIFF COMPLIANCE
Accurate U.S. Customs classification continues to play a pivotal role in managing Section 232 and 301 exposure. Recent tariff adjustments highlight the need for importers to verify Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTSUS) designations and document reasonable care. Structured audits and scenario modeling can reveal duty overlaps, ensure eligibility for trade preferences, and reinforce defensible compliance programs. Regular classification reviews now function as both an operational safeguard and a key element of strategic tariff planning.
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