Week 50 reflects broad softening in containerized import volume, ongoing capacity oversupply across Transpacific services, and sustained peak activity in key Asia air cargo markets. Carriers are initiating extensive blank sailings through late December to manage utilization, while congestion persists at select Asian ports. Trade policy developments remain active, including new investigations into the U.S. food supply chain and the implementation of updated tariff structures under the U.S.-Korea Strategic Trade and Investment Deal.
HOW ARE NEW U.S. TRADE ACTIONS SHAPING COMPLIANCE REQUIREMENTS THIS WEEK?
Federal agencies have launched a new investigation into price fixing, anti competitive conduct, and foreign ownership within the U.S. food supply chain under a recently issued Executive Order. Task Forces led by the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission will evaluate competition, industry concentration, and potential national security impacts across meat processing, seed production, fertilizer manufacturing, and agricultural equipment. At the same time, the U.S.-Korea Strategic Trade and Investment Deal is now in effect with modified Chapter 99 tariff headings for autos, reciprocal goods, and timber products, along with a full exemption for civil aircraft. Importers should review updated HTSUS provisions and ensure correct treatment for entries made after the November effective dates.
HOW IS TRANSPACIFIC VOLUME TRENDING AS DECEMBER DEMAND DECLINES?
Containerized imports into the United States are projected to reach their lowest level since mid 2023 as seasonal softness and tariff concerns influence forward planning. Capacity continues to outpace demand across both coasts, with Far East to USWC capacity up approximately 7 percent month over month and Far East to USEC capacity up approximately 12 percent. Carriers have begun implementing blank sailings across Weeks 50 through 52 and Week 1 of 2026 to manage utilization, with additional void sailings scheduled on PSW, PNW, and USEC services. A modest recovery is expected in January, although year on year projections indicate continued softness.
WHAT ARE THE KEY TRENDS IN CHINA AIR CARGO CAPACITY THIS WEEK?
China air cargo volume remains close to fourth quarter highs with stable week over week performance. Electronics, high value components, and biopharma continue to drive uplift. Market demand is supported by urgent replenishment rather than trade policy activity. The TAC Index shows firm conditions through early December with significant year to date increases on PVG export traffic and North America volumes. Jet fuel prices have eased, providing temporary cost relief for carriers. Overall lift remains well utilized across direct flights into major U.S. gateways.
HOW IS THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AIR MARKET SUPPORTING OUTBOUND VOLUME?
Southeast Asia air cargo demand remains strong across Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia as e commerce and solar sector activity sustain high volumes. Space continues to run critical into both U.S. coasts and Europe. Hong Kong maintains elevated activity driven by e commerce programs, although conditions may soften after mid December. Forward bookings remain significant as shippers move final fourth quarter commitments.
WHAT INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS ARE SHAPING GLOBAL AIR CARGO CONDITIONS?
Global air cargo performance shows balanced growth with volume and capacity both up approximately 5 percent year over year. Average rates remain below last year as supply expansion continues to outpace demand on major lanes. Analysts expect modest growth through 2026 with continued pressure from increasing lift, returning belly capacity, and shifting e commerce flows. Structural demand from Southeast Asia remains strong and is expected to support overall activity even as global growth moderates.
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